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War in Ukraine (archive)
June 3. All materials on war in Ukraine moved to archieve
I filmed this video today, it gives idea how towns West of Kiev look now.
June 8, A couple of short videos I filmed in my neighborhood
June 23, 2022 I already posted this message in March, now I have to re-write it and post again.
This message is for people who live in Poland and Baltic Countries. Be prepared for Russian/Belarus forces to attack and invade the area known as Suwalki Gap. 100 kms border between Poland and Litva. This way all 3 Baltic Countries will be cut off from the rest of Europe and Russia will reunite with the Kaliningrad area.
Don't count on NATO, only one battalion of NATO forces located in Lithuania. NATO will respond with rocket attacks on bases in Belarus and this is what Putin wants, he desperately trying to activate Belarussian army and have them involved in war.
Best way to go would be to create a military alliance between all countries who border Russia, to send one single army wherever war would break out. Either it is Finland, Sweden, Moldova, Poland or Baltic countries.
Ukraine is a training base for the Russian army. The purpose of this war in Ukraine is to test their missiles and rotate hundreds of thousands of military men through real combat, to get them experience before they engage in something serious. Also Putin wants to drain EU military resources. Many EU countries are now out of tanks and cannons. Those were sent to Ukraine, but the major attack will not be in Ukraine. We can see it as a false maneuver.
Count on your own resources. NATO will help with weapons, do some air strikes, but they will not fight for you on the ground.
What do you have to do now? If you live in the area of potential invasion- you can stay only if you see on every step people armed with machine guns and Javelins. This is why I didn't leave my home near Kiev, because it was a fortress. Every 50 meters checkpoints, tanks, machine gunners.. I knew Russians would never break through my area and they never did. If your area isn't such a fortress you better leave now because there will be the same story as in Bucha or towns North of Kiev where people had no time to prepare for defense.
Some advice for civilians who live near the area of potential invasion and don't want to leave: get yourself good bomb shelter, stockpile with canned food, medicine, candles, batteries, flame extingushers, fuel etc. Stop any real estate investments and get cash in major currencies. Don't keep your savings in national currency, it will collapse, better buy physical gold in bars 5-10 gr. they can be exchanged for fuel, food etc. If you have real estate try to sell it now. After the beginning of the war the worth of all apartments, houses, dachas and offices will be zero. Move all valuables to safer areas. Good idea to send children away before it starts.
When war begins, don't believe anything you read in the news. There will only be war propaganda. No valuable information, no info like where the enemy army is located. This is why so many civilians were trapped in Ukraine and died in cross fire. They watched good news on tv until they saw Russian tanks and when you see enemy tanks near home it's too late to run. Propaganda helps to keep spirits up, but only truth is life saving. Watch the area around, get a real picture. Call you friends who live in different areas near you. Have maps, try to figure out what goes on. Have a car in good technical condition with a full tank. When the frontline is 10 kms from your home it's time to leave and look for refuge. Don't stay in the area occupied by Putin's army, they are well known marauders, rapists and murderers. You will see many people around you who are panicking, on the brink of nervous breakdown, spreading fakes that make them even more panicking. Try to part with those people. You can't help them. Fear is contagious, it affects everyone. Common sense is rare and is a sole property of a person who is cool.
P.S. About bomb shelter, either it is basement in your house or any other it absolutely must have way out outside of building, otherwise they are death traps, when building collapse all die in a smoke or will be buried for weeks and eventually die anyways. Car and fuel must be stored outside, not in the garage. Windows in a house must be blocked and shed no light. Water source is a must, better if there is some well that requires no electricity.
June, 26 Things continue to deteriorate in Baltic region. Litva (Lithuania) has 5 airplanes. 20K army that has never been in combat. Half of Lithuania's weapons have been sent to Ukraine. Only one NATO battalion is located in this country and the government is asking for 25.000 NATO troops.
I believe Putin is hoping for a Crimea scenario where the Russian army will march through with no resistance and no fighting. If this is the case article 5 won't come into effect. Let's assume there will be resistance, then NATO has 180 days for seeking agreements of all members for military intervention. With other words Lithuania can be under occupation for 180 days, only then NATO shall react.
Suwalki Gap has no fortifications, no trenches. It is just fields with highways and population centers. Once the Russian/Belarus army will march though they will build their fortifications and trenches and when they do it you will never smoke them out of there.
It seems like no one believes Russian aggression in Baltic region can happen. Here in Ukraine no one believed it too, until early morning Feb 24 we heard the first explosions. Since then 100.000 have been killed on both sides. This number includes tens of thousands civilians who were killed under bombings and shelling while they were looking for shelter, water, food, fuel etc. This is why people who live in Baltic countries, Poland and Belarus need to be prepared now.
When this will begin you will be on your own. No army, no police, no politicians or any organization will help you. After Feb 24 there is nothing impossible.
June 28, There is something to know about the war in Ukraine that the mainstream media isn't telling. The number of air strikes and dead civilians is under reported. It's like our officials trying to save Putin's face and for that Putin allows our officials to function. For instance there was a strike on one factory not far from me. I know 7 died, nothing was on the news.
Isn't it fishy that no missile ever falls on government buildings or military headquarters here in Kiev? Isn't it strange that world leaders from countries hostile to Russia travel to Kiev by train? Zelensky and his team now live all close to each other in the South of Kiev and this was the only safe place in all of Kiev's area.
This all tells me that this war is only real from the perspective of people who die, but for politicians it's a game they play for the benefit of a man behind the curtain. In a few years we shall see what is the real plan and real purpose of this war. I am sure the final aim is to reduce the world's population. The question is with what means they will have to achieve it? I believe first they try third world wide famine and if this won't work, then nuclear option.
I think nuclear strikes will be made from the territory of Belarus, yesterday Putin announced sending nuclear capable rockets to Belarus. If nuclear warheads fly from the territory of Belarus, then NATO will respond with a strike on Belorussian territory. I believe on the first stage they will only use tactical nukes. This can happen later this year, Putin has to do it before America has supersonic missiles, which I think the USA shall have sometime in 2023.
July, 3
Lisichansk has fallen. I don't think the Ukrainian army tried very hard to defend this city. Part of the reason is that half of the population who lived there are sympathetic to separatists. Russians can win against the army, but they can't win the war against the population. It is why they were defeated near Kiev, Chernihiv and Summy.
Let's see if they can take any pro-Ukrainian city and keep it under control. Ukraine military commanders obviously save the lives of soldiers by giving away territories. Territories can be won back if there are soldiers who are armed properly. Ukraine is short of weapons and Russia has all the weapons of the Soviet Union, which lacks precision, but what can we do with a few hundred howitzers against 14.000 howitzers Russia has?
Russia learned a lesson and now seems to have found a method which allows them to move forward slowly. Like a firewall they destroy one city after another. No city- no problems, no people- no resistance. Caveman tactics. This is how they won WW2. Had Ukraine accepted this and been engaged in frontal attacks there would be heavy losses on both sides. Ukraine is a smaller country and has smaller human resources. We shall not play their game. I believe our game would be systematic strikes with high precision weapons. Week after week, month after month eventually it would produce the same effect as we saw recently on Snake Island which Russians left. As a weapon, the human brain has always been more dangerous than muscles.
We shall see what will be the next stage in this war. If Russians were a little bit smarter they would put Donbass war on pause and move their forces to Belarus and then together with Belarussian army they could cut off communication lines along our Western border. This would leave Ukraine with no fuel, no arms and no ammunition. Quite possible this will be next stage of their so called special military operation. We shall see it soon.
Author:
Filatova Elena Vladimirovna